Dr. Reza Parchizadeh, PhD (@DrParchizadeh),
As the Islamic Republic of Iran enters a phase of profound internal weakness, international debate has increasingly shifted toward the prospect of regime change. Yet history shows that the collapse of an authoritarian system does not automatically produce democracy, stability, or peace. In many cases, unplanned collapse leads instead to fragmentation, mass violence, and renewed authoritarianism under new forms.
This presentation argues that the central strategic question facing policymakers is not whether the Islamic Republic will fall, but how Iran transitions—and what political order replaces it. Drawing on comparative transitions, Iran’s internal social dynamics, and contemporary security risks, it examines the dangers of sudden collapse, person-centered succession models, and externally engineered leadership projects. The talk outlines why a managed, Iranian-led, and institution-centered democratic transition offers the only viable pathway to long-term stability.