Abstract: For more than a decade, the Islamist regime in Iran has been facing mounting domestic and international crises that in most likelihood it won’t be able to withstand in the long run. This will eventually force the regime to consider a “metamorphosis” not unlike the one that the former Soviet communist system had to undergo to partly survive. While Russia reverted to ultranationalism from communism, Iran, based on increasing evidence, is likely to revert to the same from Islamism.
My prediction is that if Iranian democratic forces are not able to create a unified pluralistic front, and if the US and the rest of the democratic world opt not to intervene to build up democracy similar to what happened in post-Soviet Russia, Iran’s next metamorphosis can produce an aggressive ultranationalism regime, which will be bad for the people of Iran and detrimental to the security and stability of the region and the wider world.
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